Methods

Kéfi S, Guttal V, Brock WA, Carpenter SR, Ellison AM, Livina VN, Seekell DA, Scheffer M, van Nes EH, Dakos V (2014) Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns. PLoS ONE 9(3): e92097. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0092097

Brock WA, Carpenter SR (2012) Early Warnings of Regime Shift When the Ecosystem Structure Is Unknown. PLoS ONE 7(9): e45586. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0045586

Ives, A.R. & Dakos, V. (2012). Detecting dynamical changes in nonlinear time series using locally linear state-space models. Ecosphere, 3, art58 http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/ES11-00347.1

Boettiger, C. & Hastings, A. (2012). Quantifying limits to detection of early warning for critical transitions. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface / the Royal Society, 9, 2527–39.

Dakos V, Carpenter SR, Brock WA, Ellison AM, Guttal V, et al. (2012) Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data. PLoS ONE 7(7): e41010. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0041010

Lade SJ, Gross T (2012) Early warning signals for critical transitions: A generalized modeling approach. Plos Computational Biology, 8(2), e1002360.

Lenton TM, Livina VN, Dakos V, van Nes EH, Scheffer M (2012) Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 370: 1185-1204.

Seekell DA, Carpenter SR, Pace ML (2011) Conditional heteroscedasticity as a leading indicator of ecological regime shifts. American Naturalist 178: 442-451.

Carpenter SR, Brock WA (2011) Early warnings of unknown nonlinear shifts: a nonparametric approach. Ecology 92: 2196-2201.

Livina VN, Kwasniok F, Lenton TM (2010) Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr. Climate of the Past 6: 77-82.

Guttal V, Jayaprakash C (2008) Changing skewness: an early warning signal of regime shifts in ecosystems. Ecology Letters 11: 450-460.

van Nes EH, Scheffer M (2007) Slow Recovery from Perturbations as a Generic Indicator of a Nearby Catastrophic Shift. Am Nat 169: 738-747.

Livina VN, Lenton TM (2007) A modified method for detecting incipient bifurcations in a dynamical system. Geophysical Research Letters 34.

Carpenter SR, Brock WA (2006) Rising variance: a leading indicator of ecological transition. Ecology Letters 9: 311-318.

Held H, Kleinen T (2004) Detection of climate system bifurcations by degenerate fingerprinting. Geophysical Research Letters 31.

Kleinen T, Held H, Petschel-Held G (2003) The potential role of spectral properties in detecting thresholds in the Earth system: application to the thermohaline circulation. Ocean Dynamics 53: 53-63.

Ives AR, Dennis B, Cottingham KL, Carpenter SR (2003) Estimating community stability and ecological interactions from time-series data. Ecological Monographs 73: 301-330.

Brock WA, Dechert W, Scheinkman J, LeBaron B (1996) A Test for Independence Based Upon the Correlation Dimension. Econometric Reviews 15: 197-235.