Early Warning Signals Toolbox
A User’s Guide for Detecting Critical Transitions in Time series and Spatial data
What is a critical transition?
Why should we expect Early Warnings before Critical Transitions?
What are Early Warning Signals?
Time series methods
Metric based methods
General Steps for Rolling Window Metrics
Ensemble example for rolling window metrics
Autocorrelation and Spectral properties
Detrended fluctuation analysis
Skewness and Kurtosis
Model based methods
Nonparametric drift-diffusion-jump models
Time-varying AR(p) models
Threshold AR(p) models
Slowing-down based indicators
Spatial correlation at lag 1
Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT)
Variability based indicators
Step-by-step analysis for spatial indicators
Step 1: Distinguishing periodic from non-periodic patterns
Step 2a: Probing spatial early warnings for non-periodic patterns
Step 2b: Probing spatial early warnings for periodic patterns
Transition to Extinction due to Photo-inhibition
Critical transition in a lake foodweb
Theory: Reviews and General reading
About the toolbox
Who we are
August 30, 2012
PloS One paper on Methods for Estimating Early-Warnings is out!